The potential benefits of a new poliovirus vaccine for long-term poliovirus risk management.

AIM To estimate the incremental net benefits (INBs) of a hypothetical ideal vaccine with all of the advantages and no disadvantages of existing oral and inactivated poliovirus vaccines compared with current vaccines available for future outbreak response. METHODS INB estimates based on expected costs and polio cases from an existing global model of long-term poliovirus risk management. RESULTS Excluding the development costs, an ideal poliovirus vaccine could offer expected INBs of US$1.6 billion. The ideal vaccine yields small benefits in most realizations of long-term risks, but great benefits in low-probability-high-consequence realizations. CONCLUSION New poliovirus vaccines may offer valuable insurance against long-term poliovirus risks and new vaccine development efforts should continue as the world gathers more evidence about polio endgame risks.